Written by Cassian Vance
Every earnings season has a defining moment—a single report that sets the tone, dictates the multiple, and establishes the narrative for the entire market. In the second quarter of 2026, that moment arrives on May 20, when NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) releases its fiscal first-quarter 2027 results.
The stakes are astronomically high. The broader market is currently pricing in a flawless execution of the artificial intelligence infrastructure build-out. With the stock trading around $215 [1]—up roughly 15.3% year-to-date [1]—NVIDIA is no longer just a semiconductor company; it is the macroeconomic proxy for the entire AI revolution.
As we enter the final ten-day countdown to the print, the fundamental setup is shifting. Wall Street is frantically revising its models, secondary infrastructure players are revealing critical demand clues, and the risk-reward calculus is evolving.
The Trillion-Dollar Pipeline
The primary debate surrounding NVIDIA is no longer about whether AI is real, but whether the hyperscaler capital expenditure cycle is sustainable. The answer, according to NVIDIA’s own management, is a resounding yes.
At the GTC 2026 conference, CEO Jensen Huang provided a stunning piece of forward visibility, citing “$1 trillion plus of Blackwell plus Rubin” in firm purchase orders and demand through the end of 2027 [2]. Crucially, this figure is a floor, not a ceiling, as it entirely excludes the upcoming Rubin Ultra and standalone Vera products [2].
Furthermore, the recent acquisition of Groq—a low-latency inference chip expected in Q3 2026—is projected to increase compute spend by approximately 25% among a subset of AI factory customers [2]. This represents a massive layer of demand that is currently invisible in most Wall Street consensus models.
Goldman Sachs and other major analysts have already begun raising their revenue and EPS estimates ahead of the print [3]. The current consensus projects Q1 revenue of approximately $87 billion, representing roughly 85% year-over-year growth [2].
Thesis on NVDA: BUY
Despite the absolute dollar size of its market capitalization, NVIDIA’s valuation remains surprisingly grounded. At $211.50, the stock trades at 25.4x next twelve months (NTM) P/E and 20.3x NTM EV/EBITDA [2]. These multiples are significantly below the peaks seen in 2024 and early 2025, and they represent a discount to slower-growing peers like Marvell Technology [2].
With hyperscalers like Microsoft planning $190 billion in 2026 capex and Meta committing up to $145 billion [2], the demand side of the equation is locked in. The primary risk is gross margin compression as the Blackwell architecture ramps up production. However, with CFO Colette Kress targeting a 50% free cash flow return to shareholders via buybacks and dividends [2], the downside is heavily protected. Investors should accumulate NVDA ahead of the May 20 print.
Nebius Group: The Pure-Play Infrastructure Alternative
For investors seeking high-beta exposure to the AI infrastructure theme without the trillion-dollar market cap of NVIDIA, the upcoming earnings report from Nebius Group (NBIS) on May 13 [4] is the critical event of the week.
Nebius has been one of the market’s best-kept secrets, soaring over 100% year-to-date to trade around $181 [5]. The company is not an early-stage speculation; it is a fully built-out compute platform with NVIDIA Blackwell silicon already deployed [6].
The recent news flow has been relentlessly bullish. Nebius just announced the $643 million acquisition of Eigen AI [7], integrating advanced inference and optimization technology into its platform. More importantly, the company has secured multi-billion-dollar, multi-year agreements with Meta and Microsoft, alongside a $2 billion equity investment from NVIDIA itself [8].
Thesis on NBIS: BUY
Nebius is aggressively transitioning from one-off capacity sales to highly lucrative, recurring platform revenue. The company is targeting an astonishing $7 billion to $9 billion in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) by year-end 2026 [9]—a sixfold to sevenfold increase in a single year. While the capital intensity of building out massive data centers (like its planned 310-megawatt facility in Finland [8]) presents execution risk, the backing of NVIDIA and contracts from Microsoft and Meta deeply de-risk the investment. Nebius is the premier mid-cap vehicle for the AI infrastructure supercycle.
The GLP-1 Collision Course
While AI dominates the infrastructure narrative, the healthcare sector is bracing for a collision in the GLP-1 weight-loss market. Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) reports its Q1 2026 earnings on May 11 after the market close [10], and the setup is treacherous.
The telehealth provider is expected to report EPS of just $0.04, representing an 80% profit decline [10]. This massive contraction in profitability is occurring precisely as the competitive landscape becomes intensely hostile.
On May 7, Amazon Pharmacy escalated the GLP-1 war by expanding same-day access to Novo Nordisk’s oral Ozempic treatment [11]. This direct encroachment by the e-commerce behemoth triggered a 5% slide in HIMS shares [11]. Furthermore, Hims & Hers relies heavily on compounded (custom-mixed) versions of GLP-1 drugs. With the FDA increasing its scrutiny and proposing crackdowns on compounded GLP-1s [12], the regulatory foundation of HIMS’s weight-loss revenue is cracking.
Thesis on HIMS: SELL
The options market is pricing in a massive 13.59% expected move following the earnings report [10]. While the stock has stabilized technically around $28 [10], the fundamentals are deteriorating rapidly. The company is caught in a vice: margins are collapsing by 80%, Amazon is attacking its distribution model, and the FDA is threatening its core product supply. With the stock trading below its 200-day moving average of $36.71 [10], any disappointment in forward guidance or margin commentary will likely trigger a severe technical breakdown. Investors should exit positions before the May 11 print.
References
[1] Yahoo Finance. “Goldman Sachs resets Nvidia stock forecast ahead of earnings.” https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-resets-nvidia-stock-164700393.html
[2] TIKR. “NVIDIA Rose 6% on Its Corning Deal. Here’s What Comes Next.” https://www.tikr.com/blog/nvidia-rose-6-on-its-corning-deal-heres-what-comes-next
[3] MSN. “Nvidia commits $40B to AI bets as forecasts rise.” https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/insight/nvidia-commits-40b-to-ai-bets-as-forecasts-rise/gm-GMA3462655
[4] MarketBeat. “Nebius Group Q1 2026 Earnings Report.” https://www.marketbeat.com/earnings/reports/2026-5-13-nebius-group-nv-stock/
[5] Reddit. “NBIS Q1 earnings Tuesday – I have been deep in this…” https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1t8vvac/nbis_q1_earnings_tuesday_i_have_been_deep_in_this/
[6] Substack. “The Hyperscaler ROI Curve — and Why NBIS is at Year Two.” https://toptechstocksus.substack.com/p/the-hyperscaler-roi-curve-and-why
[7] Yahoo Finance. “Nebius Group Recasts AI Future With Eigen AI Deal And…” https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/nebius-group-recasts-ai-future-080857365.html
[8] Simply Wall St. “Nebius Group Recasts AI Future With Eigen AI Deal And…” https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/nebius-group-recasts-ai-future-080857365.html
[9] AOL. “Investors Who Rotated Out of Tech Are Already Regretting…” https://www.aol.com/finance/investors-rotated-tech-already-regretting-190500241.html
[10] Barchart. “Hims & Hers Prepares to Explain an Eighty Percent Profit Decline…” https://www.barchart.com/story/news/1830474/hims-hers-prepares-to-explain-an-eighty-percent-profit-decline-nobody-quite-understands-yet
[11] MSN. “HIMS stock slides after Amazon escalates GLP-1 war with Ozempic…” https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/other/hims-stock-slides-after-amazon-escalates-glp-1-war-with-ozempic-ai-healthcare-bets-in-focus-ahead-of-earnings/ar-AA22EOiV
[12] MSN. “What the FDA’s latest proposal means for Lilly, Novo, and Hims.” https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/other/what-the-fdas-latest-proposal-means-for-lilly-novo-and-hims/ar-AA22BLrW
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The opinions expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the views of Equities Orbis or its affiliates. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
