{"id":599,"date":"2026-05-11T17:20:11","date_gmt":"2026-05-11T17:20:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/equitiesorbis.com\/%e9%80%9a%e8%83%80%e6%b8%85%e7%ae%97%ef%bc%9a%e5%91%a8%e4%ba%8c%e7%9a%84-cpi-%e6%95%b0%e6%8d%ae%e6%98%af%e5%90%a6%e4%bc%9a%e7%bb%88%e7%bb%93%e7%89%9b%e5%b8%82%e7%9a%84%e8%bf%9e%e8%83%9c%e7%ba%aa\/"},"modified":"2026-06-08T19:03:42","modified_gmt":"2026-06-08T19:03:42","slug":"%e9%80%9a%e8%83%80%e6%b8%85%e7%ae%97%ef%bc%9a%e5%91%a8%e4%ba%8c%e7%9a%84-cpi-%e6%95%b0%e6%8d%ae%e6%98%af%e5%90%a6%e4%bc%9a%e7%bb%88%e7%bb%93%e7%89%9b%e5%b8%82%e7%9a%84%e8%bf%9e%e8%83%9c%e7%ba%aa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/equitiesorbis.com\/zh-hans\/%e9%80%9a%e8%83%80%e6%b8%85%e7%ae%97%ef%bc%9a%e5%91%a8%e4%ba%8c%e7%9a%84-cpi-%e6%95%b0%e6%8d%ae%e6%98%af%e5%90%a6%e4%bc%9a%e7%bb%88%e7%bb%93%e7%89%9b%e5%b8%82%e7%9a%84%e8%bf%9e%e8%83%9c%e7%ba%aa\/","title":{"rendered":"\u901a\u80c0\u6e05\u7b97\uff1a\u5468\u4e8c\u7684 CPI \u6570\u636e\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u7ec8\u7ed3\u725b\u5e02\u7684\u8fde\u80dc\u7eaa\u5f55"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u7f8e\u56fd\u80a1\u5e02\u4e00\u76f4\u5904\u4e8e\u4e00\u79cd\u8ba4\u77e5\u5931\u8c03\u7684\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u6807\u666e 500 \u6307\u6570\u521a\u521a\u6536\u4e8e 7,398.93 \u70b9\uff0c\u6807\u5fd7\u7740\u5176\u8fde\u7eed\u7b2c\u516d\u5468\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u81ea 2024 \u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u6700\u957f\u7684\u8fde\u80dc\u7eaa\u5f55\u3002\u7eb3\u65af\u8fbe\u514b\u7efc\u5408\u6307\u6570\u540c\u6837\u521b\u4e0b\u4e86 26,247 \u70b9\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u65b0\u9ad8\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u6b23\u5feb\u611f\u7684\u8868\u8c61\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e00\u573a\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u98ce\u66b4\u6b63\u5728\u915d\u917f\u3002 <\/p>\n\n

\u8fd9\u573a\u98ce\u66b4\u5c06\u4e8e 5 \u6708 12 \u65e5\u5468\u4e8c\u767b\u9646\uff0c\u5c4a\u65f6\u7f8e\u56fd\u52b3\u5de5\u7edf\u8ba1\u5c40\u5c06\u53d1\u5e03 4 \u6708\u4efd\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4ef7\u683c\u6307\u6570 (CPI) \u62a5\u544a\u3002<\/p>\n\n

\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u6765\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u4e00\u76f4\u5bb9\u5fcd\u9ad8\u4f01\u7684\u901a\u80c0\uff0c\u524d\u63d0\u662f\u5047\u8bbe\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u6700\u7ec8\u4f1a\u964d\u606f\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4f0a\u6717\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u5347\u7ea7\u4ee5\u53ca\u968f\u540e\u5bf9\u970d\u5c14\u6728\u5179\u6d77\u5ce1\u7684\u5c01\u9501\u4ece\u6839\u672c\u4e0a\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u901a\u80c0\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002\u968f\u7740\u5510\u7eb3\u5fb7\u00b7\u7279\u6717\u666e\u603b\u7edf\u5728\u5468\u672b\u62d2\u7edd\u4e86\u4f0a\u6717\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u548c\u5e73\u63d0\u8bae\uff0c\u5e03\u4f26\u7279\u539f\u6cb9\u4ef7\u683c\u98d9\u5347\u81f3\u6bcf\u6876 104 \u7f8e\u5143\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u201c\u6682\u65f6\u6027\u201d\u901a\u80c0\u7684\u53d9\u4e8b\u5df2\u7ecf\u7834\u706d\u3002 <\/p>\n\n

\u5468\u4e8c\u7684 CPI \u62a5\u544a\u4e0d\u518d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6570\u636e\u70b9\uff1b\u5b83\u662f\u5bf9\u6574\u4e2a\u725b\u5e02\u7684\u5168\u6c11\u516c\u6295\u3002<\/p>\n\n

\u77f3\u6cb9\u4f20\u5bfc\u6548\u5e94<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

\u5373\u5c06\u5230\u6765\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u51b2\u51fb\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u9a71\u52a8\u56e0\u7d20\u662f\u80fd\u6e90\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u5168\u56fd\u5e73\u5747\u6c7d\u6cb9\u4ef7\u683c\u5df2\u98d9\u5347\u81f3\u6bcf\u52a0\u4ed1 4.50 \u7f8e\u5143\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e3a 2022 \u5e74 7 \u6708\u4e2d\u65ec\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u8fd9\u5e76\u975e\u5b64\u7acb\u7684\u6307\u6807\uff1b\u80fd\u6e90\u6210\u672c\u6e17\u900f\u5230\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u65b9\u65b9\u9762\u9762\uff0c\u4ece\u7269\u6d41\u3001\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u5230\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u975e\u5fc5\u9700\u6027\u652f\u51fa\u3002 <\/p>\n\n

\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u666e\u904d\u9884\u8ba1 4 \u6708\u4efd\u5934\u6761 CPI \u73af\u6bd4\u5c06\u4e0a\u6da8 0.6%\uff0c\u4f7f\u540c\u6bd4\u589e\u957f\u7387\u52a0\u901f\u81f3 3.7% \u6216 3.8%\uff08\u9ad8\u4e8e 3 \u6708\u4efd\u7684 3.3%\uff09\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6570\u636e\u8fbe\u5230\u6216\u8d85\u8fc7\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5728 2026 \u5e74\u964d\u606f\u7684\u7a97\u53e3\u5c06\u5267\u70c8\u5173\u95ed\u3002 <\/p>\n\n

\u7f8e\u56fd\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5df2\u7ecf\u5b8c\u5168\u4fee\u6b63\u4e86\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u5c55\u671b\uff0c\u8868\u793a\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e0d\u518d\u9884\u8ba1\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5728 2026 \u5e74\u4f1a\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u964d\u606f\u3002\u66f4\u4e3a\u6fc0\u8fdb\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u54c1\u6d69 (Pimco) \u9996\u5e2d\u6295\u8d44\u5b98\u4e39\u00b7\u4f0a\u74e6\u8f9b (Dan Ivascyn) \u6700\u8fd1\u8b66\u544a\u79f0\uff0c\u4f0a\u6717\u6218\u4e89\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8feb\u4f7f\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5b9e\u9645\u52a0\u606f<\/em>\u800c\u975e\u964d\u606f\u3002 <\/p>\n\n

\u6469\u6839\u5927\u901a\u6982\u8ff0\u4e86\u901a\u80c0\u8f68\u8ff9\u7684\u4e09\u79cd\u60c5\u666f\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u5728\u4ed6\u4eec\u6700\u4e50\u89c2\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u4e2d\u2014\u2014\u5047\u8bbe\u4e2d\u4e1c\u5730\u533a\u8fc5\u901f\u8fbe\u6210\u5916\u4ea4\u8c03\u89e3\u2014\u2014\u7f8e\u56fd CPI \u540c\u6bd4\u589e\u957f\u5728 2027 \u5e74 2 \u6708\u4e4b\u524d\u4ecd\u5c06\u4fdd\u6301\u5728 3.0% \u4ee5\u4e0a\u3002<\/p>\n\n

TLT \u6295\u8d44\u8bba\u70b9\uff1a\u5356\u51fa<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

iShares 20 \u5e74\u671f\u4ee5\u4e0a\u56fd\u503a ETF (TLT) \u662f\u8fd9\u79cd\u201c\u957f\u671f\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u201d\u73b0\u5b9e\u6700\u76f4\u63a5\u7684\u53d7\u5bb3\u8005\u3002\u8be5 ETF \u5df2\u8dcc\u81f3 84.90 \u7f8e\u5143\u5de6\u53f3\u7684\u6570\u6708\u4f4e\u70b9\uff0c30 \u5e74\u671f\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u98d9\u5347\u81f3 5% \u4ee5\u4e0a\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5468\u4e8c\u7684 CPI \u8bc1\u5b9e\u6cb9\u4ef7\u6b63\u5c06\u901a\u80c0\u91cd\u65b0\u951a\u5b9a\u5728 4% \u9644\u8fd1\uff0c\u957f\u4e45\u671f\u503a\u5238\u5c06\u9762\u4e34\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u629b\u552e\u538b\u529b\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u4e25\u91cd\u9519\u8bef\u4f30\u8ba1\u4e86\u964d\u606f\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97 TLT \u5728\u6570\u636e\u53d1\u5e03\u524d\u6210\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u9ad8\u7f6e\u4fe1\u5ea6\u7684\u505a\u7a7a\u6216\u907f\u5f00\u5bf9\u8c61\u3002 <\/p>\n\n

\u80fd\u6e90\u5bf9\u51b2<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

\u5982\u679c\u5927\u76d8\u5bb9\u6613\u53d7\u5230\u901a\u80c0\u51b2\u51fb\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u80fd\u6e90\u677f\u5757\u5219\u662f\u6700\u7ec8\u7684\u53d7\u76ca\u8005\u3002\u970d\u5c14\u6728\u5179\u6d77\u5ce1\u7684\u5173\u95ed\u4e3a\u5728\u51b2\u7a81\u533a\u5916\u62e5\u6709\u5927\u91cf\u4e0a\u6e38\u4e1a\u52a1\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u521b\u9020\u4e86\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u5229\u597d\u3002 <\/p>\n\n

\u5468\u672b\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u65e0\u4eba\u673a\u8fdb\u5165\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u8054\u5408\u914b\u957f\u56fd\u548c\u79d1\u5a01\u7279\u9886\u7a7a\uff0c\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5347\u7ea7\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u519b\u65b9\u786e\u8ba4\u81ea 4 \u6708 13 \u65e5\u4ee5\u6765\u5df2\u62e6\u622a\u4e86 61 \u8258\u6765\u81ea\u4f0a\u6717\u6e2f\u53e3\u7684\u5546\u8239\u3002\u968f\u7740\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5ba3\u5e03\u4f0a\u6717\u7684\u548c\u5e73\u63d0\u8bae\u201c\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u53ef\u63a5\u53d7\u201d\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u8fbe\u6210\u89e3\u51b3\u65b9\u6848\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6781\u4f4e\u3002 <\/p>\n\n

XOM \u6295\u8d44\u8bba\u70b9\uff1a\u4e70\u5165<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

\u57c3\u514b\u68ee\u7f8e\u5b5a\u516c\u53f8 (XOM) \u5360\u636e\u4e86\u6355\u6349\u8fd9\u4e00\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u6ea2\u4ef7\u4e0a\u884c\u7a7a\u95f4\u7684\u7edd\u4f73\u4f4d\u7f6e\u3002\u8be5\u80a1\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u6781\u5f3a\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u5f3a\u5ea6\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u4ef7\u683c\u63a5\u8fd1 146 \u7f8e\u5143\u3002Argus \u7684\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u6700\u8fd1\u5c06 XOM \u7684\u76ee\u6807\u4ef7\u4e0a\u8c03\u81f3 169 \u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u7406\u7531\u662f\u672a\u6765\u7684\u4ea7\u91cf\u589e\u957f\u5c06\u66f4\u52a0\u5f3a\u52b2\u3002\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u50cf\u9053\u8fbe\u5c14\u80fd\u6e90 (TotalEnergies) \u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u6b27\u6d32\u77f3\u6cb9\u5de8\u5934\u5df2\u7ecf\u62a5\u544a\u4e86\u7531\u6cb9\u4ef7\u6ce2\u52a8\u63a8\u52a8\u7684\u5de8\u989d\u5229\u6da6\u589e\u957f\u3002\u57c3\u514b\u68ee\u7f8e\u5b5a\u4e5f\u5c06\u83b7\u5f97\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u56de\u62a5\u3002\u5728\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u4f30\u503c\u500d\u6570\u53ef\u80fd\u56e0\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u800c\u6536\u7f29\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\uff0cXOM \u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u9632\u5fa1\u6027\u7684\u3001\u4ea7\u751f\u73b0\u91d1\u6d41\u7684\u5bf9\u51b2\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u4ee5\u5bf9\u6297\u5bfc\u81f4\u5e02\u573a\u52a8\u8361\u7684\u76f4\u63a5\u8bf1\u56e0\u2014\u2014\u77f3\u6cb9\u3002 <\/p>\n\n

\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u4f8b\u5916\u8bba<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

\u867d\u7136\u8fc7\u70ed\u7684 CPI \u6570\u636e\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u538b\u7f29\u6574\u4e2a\u79d1\u6280\u677f\u5757\u7684\u4f30\u503c\uff0c\u4f46\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5fc5\u987b\u533a\u5206\u9762\u5411\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u7684\u79d1\u6280\u548c\u4f01\u4e1a\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u3002<\/p>\n\n

\u601d\u79d1\u7cfb\u7edf (CSCO) \u5c06\u4e8e 5 \u6708 13 \u65e5\u5468\u4e09\uff0c\u5373 CPI \u6570\u636e\u516c\u5e03\u540e\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5929\uff0c\u53d1\u5e03\u5176\u7b2c\u4e09\u8d22\u5b63\u8d22\u62a5\u3002\u8fd9\u5bb6\u4f20\u7edf\u7f51\u7edc\u5de8\u5934\u5df2\u8f6c\u578b\u4e3a AI \u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5fc3\u5efa\u8bbe\u7684\u5173\u952e\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u3002 <\/p>\n\n

CSCO \u6295\u8d44\u8bba\u70b9\uff1a\u4e70\u5165<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

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\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500<\/p>\n\n

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