Written by Julia Rostova
On June 12, 2026, the financial markets will witness an event of unprecedented scale. SpaceX (SPCX) is set to price its initial public offering at $135 per share, seeking to raise a staggering $75 billion at a $1.75 trillion valuation. If successful, it will shatter Saudi Aramco’s $29.4 billion record to become the largest IPO in history.
But behind the headline-grabbing numbers and Elon Musk’s towering persona lies a deep schism in how Wall Street values the company. While underwriters point to a multi-hundred-billion-dollar artificial intelligence revenue runway, independent analysts warn of a massive valuation disconnect. For retail investors—who have been allocated an unprecedented 30% of the offering—the SpaceX IPO presents the ultimate test of narrative versus fundamentals.
The Anatomy of a $1.75 Trillion Valuation
SpaceX’s S-1 filing reveals a business transitioning from a pure-play aerospace manufacturer into a diversified technology conglomerate. The company generated $18.7 billion in total revenue in 2025, representing 33% year-over-year growth. However, growth came at a steep cost, with the company posting a $4.9 billion net loss for the year.
The $1.75 trillion valuation target implies a multiple of approximately 94x trailing 2025 revenue and 73x consensus 2026 revenue estimates of $22 to $24 billion. In any normal market environment, such multiples for a capital-intensive, unprofitable business would be dismissed out of hand.
However, the justification for this premium rests on three distinct pillars. First, SpaceX’s Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, and Starship platforms have effectively monopolized the commercial space launch industry. Second, the Starlink satellite broadband constellation provides a recurring, high-margin revenue stream with the potential for a global telecommunications monopoly. Third—and most critically—SpaceX is rapidly integrating with xAI (Grok) and developing orbital data centers. Goldman Sachs projects SpaceX’s AI-related revenue will explode from $3.2 billion in 2025 to an astonishing $322 billion by 2030.
| Metric | 2025 Result | 2026 Estimate (Consensus) |
| Total Revenue | $18.7 Billion | $22.0 – $24.0 Billion |
| Net Income | -$4.9 Billion | N/A |
| Implied Price/Sales | ~94x | ~73x |
The Morningstar Reality Check
Not everyone is buying the AI-fueled bull case. Morningstar recently initiated coverage on SpaceX with a fair value estimate of just $780 billion—less than half of the company’s targeted IPO valuation.
Morningstar values SpaceX’s core launch and Starlink satellite businesses at approximately $611 billion in enterprise value. The remainder of the $780 billion valuation is attributed to the company’s nascent AI operations. The firm highlights severe uncertainties surrounding the technological feasibility of orbital data centers and the long-term economics of the xAI integration.
“We think the company has been significantly overvalued and investors will have opportunities to buy the stock at more attractive levels after the IPO,” a Morningstar analyst noted, suggesting that the $1.75 trillion target relies entirely on unproven AI projections rather than the established aerospace business.
The Retail Frenzy and Structural Risks
The structure of the IPO itself adds a layer of extreme volatility. Underwriters have set aside a massive 30% of the offering for retail investors. Combined with Elon Musk’s approximately 85% retained ownership stake, the actual public float will be exceptionally low relative to the company’s market capitalization.
This low-float dynamic, coupled with retail mania, could trigger violent price swings in early trading. A “pop” well above the $135 offering price is highly likely as passive index funds and momentum traders scramble for allocation. However, once the initial lock-up periods expire and reality sets in regarding the company’s $4.9 billion cash burn, a severe correction could follow.
The IPO will list under the ticker SPCX on the Nasdaq exchange. The company plans to sell 555.6 million shares at $135 apiece, with underwriters holding an option to purchase an additional 83.33 million shares—which would bring the total raise to approximately $86.2 billion.
The Verdict: How to Play the Space Race
For investors, the SpaceX IPO requires a surgical approach. Buying into the initial frenzy carries immense risk, but ignoring the most dominant aerospace and satellite communications company of the 21st century is equally perilous. The contrarian play is to let the euphoria pass and buy the inevitable post-IPO correction.
| Ticker | Verdict | Price Target | Rationale |
| SPCX (SpaceX) | HOLD | $85 (Fair Value) | 94x revenue for an unprofitable company; Morningstar FV of $780B implies ~$65/share. Wait for post-IPO lock-up expiration. |
| RKLB (Rocket Lab) | BUY | $95 | Only viable publicly traded launch alternative; fraction of SpaceX valuation offers higher margin of safety. |
| AVGO (Broadcom) | BUY | $550 | Actual profitable AI infrastructure at PEG 0.63 vs. SpaceX’s unproven AI dreams at 94x sales. Buy the 12.6% dip. |
| ARKVX (ARK Venture) | SELL | N/A | 3% expense ratio, only 11% SpaceX exposure, 89% dilution from other venture assets. Sell and buy SPCX directly post-IPO. |
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The opinions expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the views of Equities Orbis or its affiliates. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
